The Fed has held rates steady for an average of 11 months over the last five hiking cycles.

How is that possible without a rate cut? Typically, the market anticipates Fed action before it has a chance to make any changes. Ten-year Treasury rates have been, on average, 1.31% lower from the last hike until the Fed’s first rate cut (FIGURE 2). This is a clear indication that waiting for the Fed to act heightens the risk of missing the actual market move.

2. Many Bonds Are Selling at a Discount
The past couple of years have been maddening for bond investors as rates came off historic post-COVID-19 lows. Ten-year Treasury rates hit an all-time low of 0.51% on 8/4/20. Since then, as recently as October 2023, the 10-year note touched as high as 5% for the first time since 2007. This move helped create cumulative losses of approximately 15% for investors in high-quality bonds. Investors were able to recoup a portion of the losses as the markets experienced a significant 100-basis-point⁵ rally before year end, with the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index (the Agg) finishing up over 5% for calendar-year 2023.

While it certainly has been a roller-coaster ride recently for bondholders, it’s created an attractive entry point for new investors. The average price for bonds in the Agg was a little more than $91, and the yield to worst6 was 4.53% as of 12/31/23. If those numbers are compared to bond prices at the end of 2021, when average prices stood at $104 and the yield to worst hovered around 1.75%, it’s not difficult to see why opportunities in high-quality fixed income may still exist.

In a higher-for-longer scenario, newly issued bonds with higher coupons will be added into bond funds and ETFs, while older bonds that trade at a discount will accrete back to par.⁷ Even if the fixed-income market were to remain flat, a 5% return would be a welcome total return for fixed-income investors.

3. Global Uncertainties May Push Rates Down and Bond Prices Up
Keep in mind, investment-grade bonds⁸ typically experience minimal defaults. The Agg consists of high-quality fixed-income assets with three main components (FIGURE 3).

^{Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is composed of securities that cover the US investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, with index components for government and corporate securities, mortgage pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities.}

^{Bloomberg US Government/Credit 1-3 Year Index is an unmanaged index comprised of the U.S. Government/Credit component of the U.S. Aggregate Index.}

^{ICE BofA US 3-Month Treasury Bill Index is comprised of a single issue purchased at the beginning of the month and held for a full month. At the end of the month that issue is sold and rolled into a newly selected issue.}

¹ Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of an investment’s price to nominal interest-rate movement.

² Bond discount is the amount by which the market price of a bond is lower than its principal amount due at maturity. A bond issued at a discount has its market price below the face value, creating a capital appreciation upon maturity since the higher face value is paid when the bond matures.

³ The federal funds rate is the target interest rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee. This target is the rate at which commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other overnight.

⁴ Dot plots are well known as the method that the Fed uses to convey its benchmark federal funds interest rate outlook at certain Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. FOMC members place dots on the dot plot denoting their projections for future interest rates in subsequent years and in the longer run.

⁵ A basis point (bps) is a unit that is equal to 1/100th of 1% and is used to denote the change in a financial instrument. The basis point is commonly used for calculating changes in interest rates, equity indices and the yield of a fixed-income security. 

⁶ Yield to worst is a measure of the lowest possible yield that can be received on a bond that fully operates within the terms of its contract without defaulting.

⁷ In finance, accretion refers to the accumulation of the additional income an  investor expects to receive after purchasing a bond at a discount and holding it until maturity. Par is the face value of a bond, which defines its maturity value and the dollar value of coupon payments.

⁸ Investment-grade (IG) bonds are believed to have a lower risk of default and receive higher ratings by the credit rating agencies, namely bonds rated Baa (by Moody’s) or BBB (by S&P and Fitch) or above. These bonds tend to be issued at lower yields than less creditworthy bonds.

Important Risks: Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. • Fixed-income security risks include credit, liquidity, call, duration, event and interest-rate risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall. • Mortgage-related and asset-backed securities’ risks include credit, interest-rate, prepayment, and extension risk. • U.S. Treasury securities are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. • Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market.  

The views expressed here are those of the author. They should not be construed as investment advice. This material and/or its contents are current as of the time of writing and may not be reproduced or distributed in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the express written consent of Hartford Funds.